Prediction of Gas Intake of Iron and Steel Enterprises Owned Power Plants Based on HS-RVM Model
Author(s):
H. J. Xiao †§, M. Y. Zhang ‡,S. B. Wang §
Affiliation(s):
† Quality Development Institute, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming Yunnan 650093, China
‡ Energy Industry Development Institute of Yunnan Province Energy Investment Group CO., LTD, Yunnan Kunming, 650021, China
§ State Key Laboratory of Complex Nonferrous Metal Resources Clean Utilization, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming Yunnan 650093, China
ABSTRACT: To deal with the difficulties in accurate prediction and effective scheduling of the empirical model of gas amount supplied by self-owned power plants in iron and steel enterprises, by analyzing the historical data of gas amount supplied by self-owned power plants, this paper adopts Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) to explore the tendency and rules of gas supply amount change. Meanwhile, Harmony Search (HS) is used to optimize the hyper parameters affecting the performance of RVM prediction model. A HS-RVM prediction model of gas amount supplied by self-owned power plants is constructed. This model is verified based on the actual operating data of power plants. Results have shown that it enjoys better performance than HP-Elman and PSO-SVR models, with the predicted root-mean-square error of 30 (period), 45 (period) and 60 (period) as 1.867%, 1.442% and 1.376% respectively, which meets the gas scheduling and management demand in self-owned power plants of iron and steel enterprises. Wilcoxon sign rank test verifies the effectiveness of this HS-RVM prediction model.
Keywords : Gas; Self-owned power plants; Relevance vector machine; Harmony search; Prediction
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